The Recovery Has Begun!It is somehow appropriate for us to get the news that indicates the longest recession in post-war history is over on the anniversary of the 1929 Stock Market Crash, the event which ushered in the Great Depression. Preliminary estimates for 3Q09 real GDP growth, which were just released, put it above most economic forecasts at [...] [ Continue Reading.. ]Fed’s Chicken-and-Egg Problem in CMBS & Two Suggestions on TALFOriginators want to originate new loans, investors want to buy bonds with new conservatively underwritten loans, Treasury & Federal Reserve want the new issue CMBS market to start, borrowers certainly want to take out new loans to refinance maturing loans, and yet, four months after the Treasury launched the program, not one new issue CMBS [...] [ Continue Reading.. ]Bank Regulation 101Bank regulation is always a hot topic among financial analysts. Unfortunately, every decade or so, it becomes a topic worthy of closer scrutiny by politicians because banking crises seem to come with some regularity. Today, much of the talk is about the last financial sector bailout, and how do we avoid another one [...] [ Continue Reading.. ]The Rate of UnemploymentThe unemployment rate is one of the most closely watched statistics, and possibly one of the most influential in determining consumer sentiment. Consumer sentiment translates into economic activity or a lack thereof. Everyone knows that the unemployment rate has risen significantly in the last several years. The headline rate of unemployment hit [...] [ Continue Reading.. ]A Weak Dollar is a Win for the US EconomySince January, we have seen the dollar weaken over 12% against a basket of the world’s major currencies. Should the US Government be worried about such a decline? My answer is an emphatic, No! One of the main reasons the US economy got into the mess it got into is that governments [...] [ Continue Reading.. ]Doom and Gloom: Not Here!For those of you who have known me for a long time, I don’t think economic optimist or Mr. Sunshine would be labels you would have applied to me. However, in the past two years, given all the doom and gloom I have heard and read, my place on the economists’ spectrum definitely has [...] [ Continue Reading.. ]
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