I expect little change at the next FOMC meeting. As I have been indicating in my blog and elsewhere, at least since February, the recession had at least a 25% probability of ending in Q309, with a 90% total probability that it would end by year end. We are seeing my mildly more optimistic [...]

Filed under: NewOak Blog by Vincent Truglia

For any of you who haven’t watched TV or read the newspapers, or various blogs, it’s been one year since Lehman Brothers collapsed, and triggered the worst financial panic we have seen since the Great Depression. That certainly isn’t news. What is news is that very little has changed. Should that surprise [...]

Filed under: NewOak Blog by Vincent Truglia

For students of banking and financial crises, accounting forbearance will not seem a strange phenomenon. To others it will seem just some arcane idea. However, when examined closely, we find that most governments have used it to solve major credit crises. We are seeing it happen before our very eyes today.
In a [...]

Filed under: NewOak Blog by Vincent Truglia

Much has been written about the issues faced by Commercial Real Estate, extent of losses the CMBS bonds will sustain, whether the TALF, PPIP and other government programs will help, and if the commercial real estate market is showing signs of bottoming or is going to keep declining a lot more. There are various views [...]

Filed under: NewOak Blog by Malay Bansal

It’s always interesting to analyze forecasts about future spreads and yields. CMBS industry’s weekly newsletter, Commercial Mortgage Alert publishes predictions on future CMBS spreads every January & July. I have always liked to look at them, not because anyone has the ability to predict the future, but because the predictions often provide interesting insights into [...]

Filed under: NewOak Blog by Malay Bansal