There has been a lot written in the press recently about government bond ratings, particularly for the US, the UK and Japan. As some of you may know, prior to joining NewOak Capital, I was for many years a sovereign risk analyst at Moody’s, including a long stint as the Head of the [...]

Filed under: NewOak Blog by Vincent Truglia

In our day to day frenetic pace, we often don’t take time to think about the really big picture. This week, in discussing economic developments with a client, I mentioned the growing importance of public policy in determining what will happen to the US economy. Following that meeting, a colleague noted to me [...]

Filed under: NewOak Blog by Vincent Truglia

I regularly get questions as to whether the Fed’s quantitative easing policy will trigger inflation. As with most economic questions, the answer is not straightforward. First, quantitative easing is just an unemotional way of saying “printing money.” When people hear that a central bank is printing money, they immediately think of Brazil [...]

Filed under: NewOak Blog by Vincent Truglia

Structural problems appear to be everywhere in the economy so why is the market rallying? Is this a sucker’s rally?
Some general observations:
- Given the Lehman experience and the subsequent cost of propping up confidence and the markets the government is simply not going to let another large financial institution fail. Also, at depressed levels, [...]

Filed under: NewOak Blog by Michael Khankin, CFA

No, I am not preparing a Mother’s Day card. Rather, L-U-V represent what most economists use to describe likely recovery paths for the US economy.
The L-Word
Until relatively recently, many economists had argued that after the sharp fall-off in economic activity and the nature of the credit crisis, the best we could expect would be [...]

Filed under: NewOak Blog by Vincent Truglia