Spanish Flu (1918-1919)
Before judging how the economy might be affected, I did a little research into the history of flu pandemics during the 20th century. The first and most famous modern pandemic was the so-called Spanish Flu. According to most historians, that pandemic was one of the deadliest in history. Although many [...]

Filed under: Research Reports by Vincent Truglia

As I wrote on April 1, we are approaching the bottom of the recession. 1Q09 GDP growth at an annual rate will look bad, in the range of -4.5% to -5.0%, but not as bad as 4Q08 (-6.3%). 2Q09 will see a modest decline in GDP (-2% at annual rate). 3Q09 will [...]

Filed under: Research Reports by Vincent Truglia

For many years I was a member of the Global Commission on Aging. Despite being an economist for years, I always thought my main qualification for the Commission was that I was aging – better than the alternative. As a consequence of analyzing country risk, added to my membership on that Commission, I [...]

Filed under: Research Reports by Vincent Truglia

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) just released revised estimates for historical effective federal income taxes for the period 1979-2006 (the latest and most accurate numbers available). I make no judgments regarding the equity or inequity of the numbers. This is provided solely to inform the discussion presently underway regarding our tax laws. [...]

Filed under: Research Reports by Vincent Truglia

No, this is not an April Fools prank, although others may disagree, I think we are slowly approaching the bottom of the recession. Recessions are almost always caused by excess capacity in one or more major economic sectors. At first, those sectors are in denial, but as time passes, the denial [...]

Filed under: Research Reports by Vincent Truglia